Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

www.shejio.org

display outside the Kani Doraku restaurant at the

One of Japan’s two “urban prefectures”, Osaka is home to the country’s thir上海419论坛

d-largest city and its commercial center, having played a vital role in Japan’s economy for ov

er 1,700 years. This summer, it expects to gather around 30,000 people for the G20 summit, the centerpiece of the 2019 G20 meetings.上海419论坛

Tourists may be disappointed by being unable to access the i

conic, gull-winged Osaka Castle, which is expected to be used as a backdrop for G20 events.

上海419论坛Some 700 schools in the city will close on the summit days in order to reduce congestion, according to local press reports.

The participants are leaders from 19 countries and the European Union. The 19 countries are A

rgentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy

上海419论坛女神会所, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Republic of South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

, United Kingdom and United States of America. In addition, leaders of invited guest countrie上海419论坛女神会所

s and representatives of invited guest international organizations

will participate in the summit along with leaders from the G20 members.

The host country of the G20 summit leads the group over the course of one year from Decemb

er through the following November as the G20 presidency. The G20 presidency also organizes relevant ministerial and working group meetings.

Together, the nations of the G20 account for around 80 percent of global economic out

put, nearly 75 percent of all global trade, and about two-thirds of the world’s population.

上海419论坛The G20 was formed in 1999, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, to unite finance ministe

rs and central bankers from twenty of the world’s largest established and emerging econom

The G20 initially focused largely on broad macroeconomic policy, but it has expanded its ambit. The 2018 summit in Argentina

focused on fair and sustainable development, while the previous summit in Germany drilled down on issues including corruption, money laundering and international tax havens.

Economic and financial coordination remains the centerpiece of each summit’s agenda, but issues such as the

future of work, terrorism and global health are recurring focuses as well. This was increasingly true in the d

ecade following the global financial crisis, when the G20 was able to turn its attention beyond acute economic crisis management.

ies. A decade later, at the height of the global economic crisis, the G20 was elevated to include heads of state and government.上海419论坛女神会所

guapogang.cn

Xi attributed the Par上海后花园品茶微信and victories to its

 remaining true上海后花园品茶微信 to its original aspirations and always keeping in mi

nd its missions to pursue happiness for the people and rejuvenate the Chinese nation.

As socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered the new era, Xi warned Party members and leading officials not to lose revoluti

onary spirit and fighting courage, and required them to eternally remain true to the Party’s founding mission.

He highlighted the importance of carrying out self-reform within the Party as some dange

rous problems and risks that possibly undermine the CPC’s long-term governance have surfaced from time to time.

Problems and impediments that could shake the foundation of the Party must be eradicated through thorough self-reform, and Party members should li

sten to the people’s voices and voluntarily accept the oversight of the people, he said.

“To forge iron, one must be strong,” said Xi in his first public address after being elected general secretary of the CPC Cent

ral Committee in November 2012. His words nearly seven years ago spurred the whole Party to carry out self-reform.

stgongchen.cn

ge group callisthenics and 上海会所品茶微信s held at the May

Xi and his wif上海会所品茶微信g Liyuan, were greeted by Kim and

his wife, Ri Solju, at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport upon their arrival.

Under Chinese and DPRK national flags and large welcome banners, nearly 10,000 people

lined up at the airport, waving flowers and chanting cheerful slogans to greet the Chinese guests.

Following a grand welcoming ceremony complete with a 21-gun salute, Xi headed to the square of

the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where he became the first foreign leader to receive a salute at the hi

ghly symbolic site. Hundreds of thousands of people lined up along the road from the airport, waving flags and flo

wers and chanting “Long Live the China-DPRK Friendship” and other slogans to welcome Xi.

www.ubnpqz.cn

Zhang looked “distress上海品茶微信女神会所ed heid Christe

Christensen, add上海品茶微信女神会所ing that she spoke “broken English”, said she was la

te to some place and had a meeting with her professor. He said he then offered her a ride.

Stiverson, however, pointed out later in the session that she Googled the address of One North — the apartment that she pla

nned to sign a lease on that afternoon — one minute after she got into Christensen’s car.

Christensen repeatedly claimed that he let Zhang get out of his car after she “freaked out” when

he made a wrong turn, saying, “I don’t want to keep someone I barely know in my car.”

He admitted during the questioning that he was attracted to Zhang “a reasonable amount”.

Both Manganaro and Stiverson pointed out that based on what they knew, she “didn’t get out” of his car.

fyace.org

Premier urges support 上海品茶微信女神会所 beside a China R

Innovative overs上海品茶微信女神会所ight helps companies improve their cross-border business

Greater policy support and innovative government oversight is needed to shore up the growth of cross-border e-c

ommerce, Premier Li Keqiang said during an inspection trip to Zhejiang province on Wednesday and Thursday.

As he visited a pilot zone in Hangzhou, the premier underlined the role of cross-border e-commerce in

enabling more businesses to take part directly in international trade.

He noted that the business model is a major trend for the future develo

pment of international trade, and it will help promote the integrated development of busin

esses of various sizes and benefit the upgrading and branding of domestic manufacturers.

shlf19.com

economic structure. China should also invest more

 in the service secto爱上海女神会所r, and deregulate the services for the elderly and children, and medical care and education.

Although its overall economic uncertainty has increased, China’s economy still has great pote

ntial in terms of service and consumption, especially because it is a market of more than 1.3 bil

lion people including a middle-income group of 400 million all of whom are seeking a better life.

Current policy package strong enough to counter headwinds, economist says

China has no immediate need of aggressive stimulus to support growth unless trade tensions with the United States m

ore visibly weigh on growth momentum, and greater patience and policy preparation are needed now for market-

oriented, longer-term reform and opening-up, a senior economist said in an exclusive interview.

Given the uncertainty from China-US trade friction, macroeconomic polic

ies should always be prepared to support the economy, especially if growth mome

shangjianxiachui.cn

While many people doubt whether Mo could top the s

success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h

as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.

Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he

released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.

Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th

at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri

tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.

www.qianpadbe.com

I think the manufacturing industry feels the same thi

Holden is positive about the future of the relationship. “Honestly, both countries need each other,” he said.

“We need to be able to sell products in China. The Chinese population is wanting the goods that we can

produce here. China also gives us a workforce in some of our industries, which makes them com

petitive globally,” said Holden, who opened Missouri’s first trade office in China during his term from 2001 to 2005.

“I think there are advantages and opportunities on both sides if we ca

n get people to sit down and really look at how do we put these pieces together,” Holden said.

He listed infrastructure, energy, education and business-to-bu

siness relationships as potential areas of cooperation between China and the US, an]

d he suggested such cooperation could start from subnational bilateral exchanges.’

www.ypfna.cn

ommerce ministry to protect Chinese companies’ interests

hina is drafting a list of foreign parties considered “unreliable enti

ties” that harm the interests of Chinese companies, said the Ministry of Commerce on Friday.

Detailed measures of the plan are to be disclosed at a later date.

The list will target companies, people and organizations that fail to abide by market rules, violate th

e spirit of contract, block Chinese companies for non-commercial reasons, and severely violate Chinese co

mpanies’ legitimate rights, said Gao Feng, the ministry’s spokesman, in a media briefing on Friday.

“Due to the increasing uncertainties in the global economy, including

the rising trade protectionism and unilateralism, the multilateral trading system is facing s

evere challenges and regular international commercial activities have been disrupted,” Gao said.

www.uoxkw.cn